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NOVEMBER 6,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:14 P.M. ET: 

AND SO IT BEGINS – FROM FOX:   EXCLUSIVE: An unidentified male on Sunday potentially violated Ohio election law by standing outside a polling station to hand out invitations to an event touting appearances by Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and NBA star LeBron James.  “It is clear that this is extremely questionable, if not illegal behavior,” a spokesman for Secretary of State Jon Husted’s office said after reviewing a video of the incident taken by the Fox News Channel.  Husted told Fox last week that his office would investigate any allegation of fraud or tampering that is brought to his attention by Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who warns of election “rigging” regularly, or anyone else.  James is appearing with Clinton at a rally in Cleveland.  Expect many of these stories on election night and thereafter.  And don't be shocked if even the presidential election is challenged if the vote count is close.

AH THE MEMORY – I WAS A GENDER-NEUTRAL PROM ROYAL – FROM CBS:   OMAHA, Neb. - The University of Nebraska at Omaha has named its royal homecoming pair, but don’t call them king and queen.  The school has joined a growing number of other schools around the county that are moving to gender-neutral homecoming courts to be more inclusive of transgender students. The trend appears to be part of a larger national dialogue that erupted after a series of so-called “bathroom laws” and other pieces of anti-LGBT legislation were introduced in statehouses nationwide.  UNO administrators supported the change to dub the school’s homecoming winners as “royals,” CBS Omaha affiliate KMTV reports.   Can't you have a king and a queen...and other royals if the students so vote?  Why do so many of these movements turn into "my way or the highway" demand centers?

AT LEAST THERE ARE SOME – FROM THE WASHINGTON POST:  Donald Trump collected three more newspaper endorsements on Sunday — nice pickups for a candidate feeling momentum near the finish line but also a reminder of just how rare it was for the Republican presidential nominee to earn a publication's support in this election.  The Florida Times-Union of Jacksonville, Bowling Green (Ky.) Daily News and Republican-American of Waterbury, Conn., joined a coterie of Trump-backing papers that includes the Las Vegas Review-Journal, owned by GOP mega donor Sheldon Adelson, and small dailies such as the St. Joseph (Mo.) News-Press, Santa Barbara News-Press, Waxahachie (Tex.) Daily Light, Times-Gazette of Hillsboro, Ohio, and Antelope Valley Press of Palmdale, Calif.  Overall, the 2016 endorsement season was characterized by striking departures from tradition, as conservative editorial boards across the country overwhelmingly rejected the Republican Party's standard-bearer.  Endorsements generally don't have much influence.  The great majority of American newspapers endorsed FDR's opponents in Roosevelt's presidential campaigns, because the press lords were Republican.  Roosevelt won all four times.  Trump would have done far better with endorsements had he been a better candidate from the start.  He was not, for which he must take complete blame.

November 6, 2016       Permalink 

BULLETIN – AT 5:22 P.M. ET:  Did FBI Director James Comey just hand Hillary Clinton the election?  From The Hill: 

FBI Director James Comey announced Sunday that the FBI has not changed its July conclusion regarding Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server while secretary of State.

The announcement comes just two days before Election Day, following harsh criticism of Comey for his Oct. 28 letter on the latest portion of the investigation.

“Since my letter," Comey wrote Sunday, "the FBI investigative team has been working around the clock to process and review a large volume of emails from a device obtained in connection with an unrelated criminal investigation."

"During that process we reviewed all of the communications that were to or from Hillary Clinton while she was Secretary of State.

"Based on our review, we have not changed our conclusions that we expressed in July with respect to Secretary Clinton."

COMMENT:  I wonder how many Clintonistas are angry at James Comey now.  He may well have just elected Hillary Clinton, releasing his statement two days before the election.

Does it reflect facts, or pressure from Loretta Lynch?

The e-mail trove found on Anthony Weiner's server was reported as huge.  It took only a week to review the messages? 

What do I think is missing here?

November 6,  2016     Permalink

AS MICHIGAN GOES – AT 1:40 P.M. ET:   As the day goes on, we're seeing more and more reports of Dems sweating the election, as "safe" Democratic states are suddenly back in play.  Consider Michigan.  From The Hill: 

Democrats are growing nervous that the solidly blue state of Michigan could slip from Hillary Clinton’s grasp.

“Beds are damp,” said Van Jones, former “green jobs” adviser to President Obama, on CNN’s “State of the Union” Sunday.

“There is a crack in the blue wall, and it has to do with trade,” Jones said. “This is the ghost of [Sen.] Bernie Sanders [I-Vt.].”

Clinton, the Democratic presidential nominee, and President Obama will both be in Michigan on Monday, a sign that suggests they see a tight race. Clinton will be in Grand Rapids, while the president will visit Ann Arbor. The Clinton team has also launched a late statewide TV ad blitz, according to the Detroit News.

No Republican has won Michigan since 1988, but Republican nominee Donald Trump's anti-trade message is resonating throughout the state. And Democrats are worried about a drop in black voter turnout that could be the difference between defeat and victory.

Clinton lost the presidential primary in Michigan to Sanders in an upset. Though Michigan has a large African-American population, the Sanders message on trade and economics was strong enough to defeat Clinton in the state.

A loss in Michigan would be devastating to Clinton. While she will head into Election Day as the favorite, a defeat in Michigan would offset a Trump loss somewhere else, and could also bode well for the Republican in Ohio, Pennsylvania or even Wisconsin — all states that he has been focused on.

COMMENT:  We try to avoid predictions here, but we've seen political revolts before, some resulting in good change, others not.  It was a political revolt that gave the GOP nomination to Donald Trump in the first place.  Whether that's good or bad is your choice.  And a political revolt by the Sanders contingent sent a real scare through the Clinton faction during the spring.

Will we see another revolt in two days? 

November 6, 2016       Permalink 

TRIBUTE TO A YOUNG COP – AT 11:58 A.M. ET:  There's so much cop bashing coming from the left, and we'll fight to balance it.  An extraordinary event occurred in New York on Friday – a police cadet took down a serial criminal who had just fatally wounded the cadet's partner.  A good, quick-thinking cop-to-be, who probably prevented further deadly carnage.  From the New York Post: 

The recruit who opened fire on the thug during the Bronx shootout that claimed the life of Sgt. Paul Tuozzolo on Friday had been in the Police Academy for only two months, sources told The Post.

“He’s with his family,” a source said Saturday of the recruit, whose steely nerves and good aim are being credited with killing suspect Manuel Rosales and preventing a worse loss of officer life.

“He’s being reassured by co-workers and bosses that he did a great job,” the source said. “He feels terrible for the sergeant’s family.”

The recruit had just been assigned to a training officer — and was on his third day of what would be three weeks of academy “field training” when he aced the ultimate test.

He was one of seven cops in three police vehicles to pursue Rosales’s Jeep in the borough’s Van Nest section. Rosales was being sought for breaking into his estranged wife’s apartment nearby. Only he and a second officer were able to open fire on Rosales as the suspect fired point blank at Tuozzolo’s head.

The recruit had hit the streets as part of a revamped training strategy instituted last summer.

NYPD spokesman Stephen Davis told The Post at the time, in what would prove to be prophetic words, “certain things are better taught in real-life settings.”

COMMENT:  Great police work.  Tragically, one cop was lost, but a recruit saved the day.  Blue lives matter, too.

November 6, 2016       Permalink

TWO DAYS TO GO – AT 11:48 A.M. ET:  What do we know?  Not much that's new.   Looks like it will be a close election in the popular vote.  Clinton is only ahead by 1.8 points in the RealClearPolitics average of polls in a two-way race, 2.2 points in a four-way race. 

For four days running the IBD/TIFF poll showed a dead heat.  This morning it has Trump up by one.  The Washington Post/ABC poll has been all over the place, and now shows Clinton up by five.  The L.A. Times poll shows Trump up by five.  Go figure.

None of it matters.  It's the states that count.  The electoral vote.  Most pollsters give Clinton a pretty good edge in the electoral vote, but there's clearly a sense of unease about the predictions.  Donald Trump and Mike Pence will be in Minnesota today, a generally safe Democratic state.  They wouldn't both be going unless internal polling gives the ticket a reasonable shot.

There are reports of a surge in Hispanic voting, something that would benefit Hillary Clinton.  There are also reports about a substantial dip in the black vote, something that would hurt her.  Overall, Trump has been making progress in many state polls.  Whether he has the time between now and Tuesday to overtake Clinton is the big question.  Turnout will decide that.  Historically, time has run out on many candidates who have been gaining as election day neared.  The classic example is Vice President Hubert Humphrey, who was gaining on Richard Nixon as the 1968 election approached, but lost by a hair.  It's widely believed (but cannot be proved) that, had the campaign gone on another week, Humphrey would have won.

Three days from today we'll be using "President-elect" to describe either Trump or Clinton.

November 6,  2016     Permalink

NOVEMBER 5,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET: 

WARNING – FROM ZEROHEDGE:   One day after US intelligence sources warned that Al-Qaeda may be preparing for potential terrorist attacks in New York, Texas and Virginia, on Saturday the Islamic State called for the "slaughter" of U.S. voters on Election Day and demanded that Muslims not participate in the democratic process because "there is no difference between the Republican and Democratic parties in their “policies against Islam and Muslims."  Rita Katz, director of terrorist monitoring group SITE Intelligence Group, said Saturday on Twitter that the threats appear in an essay carried by the Islamic State's Al Hayat media center that declares militants "have come to slaughter you and smash your ballot boxes."  "May Allah make this year’s U.S. presidential election a dreadful calamity like no other to have struck America throughout its pathetic history," the seven-page manifesto, entitled "The Murtadd Vote," read.  Rita Katz, no relation to me, is one of the best sources for this kind of information.  We can only be vigilant, use common-sense security measures, and hope.  We are a free society and we conduct open elections.

STATESMANSHIP – FROM THE HILL:    Secretary of State John Kerry will visit an Antarctic research station next week, making him the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the world’s southernmost continent.  Kerry will meet with scientists at the McMurdo Station in Antarctica during a trip Nov. 10–12, the State Department announced on Friday.  While there, Kerry will discuss the impact of climate change on the continent and will visit the Ross Sea Region Marine Protected Area, which a group of 24 nations announced last month as the the world’s largest marine sanctuary.  When the marine area was established in October, Kerry praised it as one that “will safeguard one of the last unspoiled ocean wilderness areas on the planet — home to unparalleled marine biodiversity and thriving communities of penguins, seals, whales, seabirds, and fish.”  The penguins have promised Kerry a 21-chirp salute.

TRUMP SCARE – FROM THE DAILY MAIL:   Secret Service agents rushed Donald Trump offstage on Saturday evening during a rally in Reno, Nevada after they determined a protester in the audience might pose a threat to the Republican presidential candidate.  'Go! Go!' agents shouted as they whisked Trump away and a combination of local police and private security wrestled Austyn Crites, 33, to the ground in the front of the crowd.  Crites identifies as a Republican who supports Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, according to his Facebook page.   A senior Trump campaign official told DailyMail.com that the suspect, whom rally-goers already identified as an anti-Trump protester, caused a panic when he reached into his waistband.  At that point, the campaign official said, a voice called out: 'He's got a gun!'  No gun was actually found.  But the incident once again shows the risks of modern politics.  Hillary Clinton is known to have a poor relationship with those sworn to protect her.  Trump apparently has a good one.  Maybe Hillary will reconsider.

November 5, 2016       Permalink

THE COOK VIEW – AT 12:46 P.M. ET:  Charlie Cook, one of the most influential election pundits, is calling back his announcement that the presidential race is over.  From The Hill: 

Influential election forecaster Charlie Cook is backing off his call that the presidential race is “over.”

Cook, the publisher of the Cook Political Report, made headlines last month when he tweeted: “Take a close look at the new Fox News poll released tonight. This race is OVER.”

Now, with polls tightening both nationally and in several key states, Cook says he still thinks Donald Trump will lose but no longer considers it implausible that the GOP nominee takes the presidency on Tuesday.

“The race is in a different place than 8 or 9 days ago when there was virtually no path for Trump,” Cook told The Hill on Saturday. “So yes, like everyone else, we've revised our assessment.”

Nine days ago, Cook held a definitive view of the race. When The Hill asked whether he could imagine a “moonshot” scenario in which Trump could win, he replied, “No.”

Cook noted still believes Trump’s chances are “fairly small.”

He said the GOP nominee needs a half-dozen or so things to go exactly right for him to win, whereas Hillary Clinton only needs one or two things to fall her way.

COMMENT:  I have a feeling, I've heard it from people, that some voters are going for Trump just to get back at the pollsters and pundits, and to assert the notion that it's the voters who select the president, not the journalists.  It's hard to know how big that "get lost" vote is, but it's there.

November 5, 2016       Permalink

COULD THIS BE TRUE? – AT 12:19 P.M. ET:   We report it to you as one polling result.  From Breitbart: 

Donald Trump is on track to double Gov. Mitt Romney’s support among African-American voters, according to a series of state polls.

In 2012, African-Americans comprised a record 13 percent of all voters. President Barack Obama was reelected with 93 percent of the African-American vote, leaving Gov. Mitt Romney with only 6 percent of the African-American vote. Obama is now campaigning against Trump, and hoping to keep his share of the African-American vote below the 11 percent that George W. Bush won in 2004 during the housing bubble.

On Friday, a poll of 506 Pennsylvania voters by Harper Polling showed Trump has the support of 18.46 percent of African-Americans. That’s eight points more than Romney’s share of the national vote in 2012, and if it proves true during the ballot, that 18.46 percent African-American support translates into 2 point shift towards Trump. The poll also said another 4.6 percent were undecided.

The Harper poll is small, with an error margin of 4.4 percent, but an Oct. 30 poll of 1,249 likely voters in Pennsylvania showed Trump has 19 percent support among African Americans, while another 7 percent remain undecided. That poll has a error margin of 2.77 percent.

In next-door Michigan, two nights of a tracking poll conducted for Fox 2 of 1,150 likely voters showed Trump with 14 percent support and 19 percent support, leaving Clinton with 83 percent and 79 percent support. That’s equivalent to a two-point shift from Clinton to Trump in the state.

“We’re showing Donald Trump doing far better among African-Americans than any other Republican in modern memory, said John Yob, CEO of a Michigan-based polling firm, Strategic National. Trump “has done an excellent job in campaigning for the votes of African-Americans,” he said, partly by campaigning in Detroit, said Yob, whose automated tracking polls show Trump and Clinton running level in the state.

COMMENT:  We'll see what the actual result is on Tuesday night, but the numbers don't shock me.  African-Americans have never been warm toward Hillary Clinton, and they aren't doing very well under the Democrats generally.  

November 5,  2016     Permalink

WITH THREE DAYS TO GO – AT 11:24 A.M. ET:  Not much excitement in the poll results this morning.

The national polls appear to be stabilizing around a small Clinton lead.  Very small indeed.  The new Fox poll is typical:

Hillary Clinton has a 2-point edge over Donald Trump with less than a week before the election.

That’s according to a new national Fox News Poll of likely voters conducted Tuesday-Thursday.

In the four way race, Clinton tops Trump by a 45-43 percent margin. She was up by three points a week ago (44-41 percent) and by six in mid-October (45-39 percent). Gary Johnson gets 5 percent and Jill Stein two percent. Only four percent are undecided.

Without third-party candidates in the mix, Clinton is ahead by just one point: 46-45 percent. She was up five points in the two-way last week (49-44 percent, October 22-25).

IBD/TIPP has the race tied at 44-44 for the fourth straight day.

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump remained all tied for the fourth straight day, 44% to 44%, despite continuing revelations surrounding the FBI's investigation into Clinton's emails and a possible "pay for play" scandal at the family Clinton Foundation, according to the latest IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll.

Rasmussen doesn't report on weekends.  L.A. Times, which has leaned more toward Trump during this campaign than any other poll, has him up 5.3 points.

But the state polls should now be in the spotlight, as we vote by states on Tuesday.  (We actually have never had a national election.)  State polls are more difficult to read.  They're not taken as often as national trackers, of course.  But a number of battleground states seem to be moving toward Trump.  Whether he has the time until Tuesday to win them is an iffy proposition. 

November 5,  2016     Permalink